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Global Scenarios 2021-2026


Living under conditions of radical uncertainty means that we cannot predict the future, but we must minimize surprise. Ambiguity entails both risk and opportunity. Scenario work help us to prepare and plan for alternative futures. Harnessing the knowledge of leading Nordic companies, the Nordic West Office has developed four Global Scenarios that describe plausible futures ranging from 2021 to 2026. Each scenario, presented in the slides below, has its own internal logic, values and actors. They force us to recognize that tomorrow’s world will depart, perhaps radically, from today’s context. We must entertain, in the words of Jeremy Bentham, current Head of Shell Scenarios, “alternative memories of the future”. Imagining alternative worlds should be both an enjoyable and unsettling exercise. 

Use these scenarios to prepare for the future, and once it arrives, as it always does, respond to challenges and opportunities from a position of knowledge and strength. The presentation of Global Scenarios 2021-2026 follows in two parts. First, we explain how we created these scenarios as well as present them with a focus on specific themes and geographies. Second, we offer brief narratives welcoming you into the four different worlds. Belt and Road or Cyberworld, War-War or Downshift — which of our four scenarios will be your future?

Link to the Global scenarios -report

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